July 31, 2006, Bad case scenario
This morning's WaPo gives us this analysis of Middle East events. There are some great money lines (I'll give you some in a second), but the premise seems to be that the immaturity and stupidity that thinks that Middle East problems have been intractable for something and therefore "something" has to be done, or even "something different," no matter how shortsighted or irresponsible, has put the United States, and in this case, Israel, in about as isolated and untenable position as they have been in... well, anybody remembers.
One money line calls what will happen in Lebanon now, especially after the carnage in Qana, a "bad case scenario", but the likeliest one. Another is:
[Richard] Haass, the former Bush aide who leads the Council on Foreign Relations, laughed at the president's public optimism. "An opportunity?" Haass said with an incredulous tone. "Lord, spare me. I don't laugh a lot. That's the funniest thing I've heard in a long time. If this is an opportunity, what's Iraq? A once-in-a-lifetime chance?"
In short, the likeliest scenario from the gross Israeli overreaction that we didn't stop in the interest of satisfying moron war-hawks' wet-dreams about having Israel costlessly take out Syria and Iran for us is that Hizbollah will be strengthened in Lebanon and the government weakened, and other Arab states (i.e. our friends) will have to adjust to an even more radicalized populace whose anti-Israel and anti-American feelings are heightened.
Let's just say that the first President Bush would have been a bit more cautious, as he would have felt that all of these machinations... wouldn't be prudent.
Comments
Reportedly the Israelis are now to push as far as the Litani River.Given they've coveted its water for decades is that a military objective or just another instalment in their greed for other nations' resources? Watch that space.
Posted by euro-ron at August 1, 2006 7:20 AM
I'm betting that the Israelis are looking for a way out of this-- their version of "peace with honor". If the appearance of escalating some more will give them that-- or what at least one article suggests, to wit, that they want to "clear an area for international buffer forces so they don't have to fight Hizbollah", then this could be the beginning of the end.
If we take it at face value, of course, it will be the end of the beginning. And that will not be good. If Israel's goal was to turn Lebanese opinion against Hizbollah, it has screwed that up big time. Indeed, it is not even clear Israel has "weakened" or "degraded" Hizbollah, though it has highlighted its own vulnerabilities in the process.
BTW: Israel's principal vulnerability is its public's bizarre willingness to tolerate (its own) civilian casualties, but not military casualties-- a weakness Hizbollah has been exploiting for a long time.
Posted by the talking dog at August 1, 2006 12:25 PM
Is it too f#@!@%g much to ask for a new post every day? What is this, some kinda of f#@!@%g conspiracy?
Posted by Mad Max at August 2, 2006 10:55 AM
And now Israel is advising civilians to evacuate the NORTH bank of the Litani - I rest my case.
Posted by euro-ron at August 2, 2006 12:27 PM
Ron, I hope you're wrong. Unfortunately, that's not how you bet.
It would seem that Israel's read is that they have a green light from the White House no matter what they do, so they may as well not hold back.
While sanity might prevail (or Hizbollah may convince Israel the price is too high), again, that's not how you bet.
Deep sigh.
Posted by the talking dog at August 2, 2006 12:39 PM