And so native son Mitt Romney pulls out all the stops to win the GOP Michigan primary, around 39% to McCain's 30% and Huck's 16%. Not a terrible surprise, though McCain's last big chance to put it away before Super-Duper Tuesday is gone, and without the Michigan Mo', Huck looks good in South Carolina, and just a little later in Florida, Rudy is somehow still in it (God help us all). If Democrats would rather face Mitt in November than McCain, this probably helped that scenario. Who knows where we go now.
On the other hand, running quite literally unopposed in a token beauty contest, Hillary Clinton won a plurality against Kucinich, but exit polling shows serious, serious divides between poorer whites (overwhelmingly favoring Hillary) and... everybody else (overwhelmingly favoring Obama, or Edwards, or at least... not Hillary). The implication, as Bill runs around calling Obama "the Establishment candidate" (correct answer being "they both are-- only Hillary moreso") is that we may well have what we usually have-- a nationally polarized racial unit. If indeed Bill Clinton was "the first Black President", rather than "the favorite President of Black elites," then it's clear that the mojo isn't extending to Hillary... I tend to think it wouldn't extend much to "Centrist Bill" either, but that's just me. And in case no one was looking, we have a Black man in the race with genuine appeal not only to Black voters, but to young voters, and better educated voters...
Short answers: the Republicans will probably not have a decisive nominee going into their convention, barring some late brokering (i.e. "McCain-Huckabee" or even "McCain-Romney" as a pre-packaged deal), unless McCain rallies to win both South Carolina and Florida. The Democrats will be in a similar position if Edwards does well in South Carolina and Florida, as I think Hill and Barack are close enough otherwise, and any late contest that includes the Clintons will turn far, far more toxic than they have already turned it. Proving once again, that in a year when they can't lose... the Democrats may just find a way.
My bon mot du jour is that while toxic now, the Democratic race will become a designated superfund site in 2 weeks time.
Posted by the talking dog at January 16, 2008 11:04 AM